Possible scenario
Controlled NATO Deterrence
42% Chance
NATO expands surveillance, air defense, and maritime patrols without directly engaging Russian forces. Moscow tests the perimeter but avoids striking NATO military assets, making this the most likely near-term path after the first attacks in territorial waters.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.3%
- Industrials +0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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