Possible scenario
Prolonged Gray-Zone Campaign
28% Chance
Russia continues attacks close to Romanian and Bulgarian waters while trying to stay below the threshold of a direct NATO-Russia military exchange. NATO responds with more air defense, surveillance flights, and rules-of-engagement changes, but the commercial risk premium remains elevated.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.