Possible scenario
Direct Military Clash
15% Chance
A NATO unit directly engages Russian drones or a Russian strike damages an allied asset. This remains less likely than controlled deterrence because both sides have incentives to avoid a NATO-Russia war, but the risk is materially higher after ships were sunk in NATO waters.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +5.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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