Possible scenario
Unrest Escalates
20% Chance
The purge becomes a broader legitimacy crisis, with MAS factions, unions, and regional civic groups portraying the arrests as a U.S.-backed political crackdown. Roadblocks, strikes, and clashes with police disrupt La Paz, Cochabamba, and parts of the mining corridor.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.8%
- Finance -0.4%
- Energy -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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