Possible scenario
Purge Consolidates
38% Chance
President Rodrigo Paz Pereira's government keeps control of the security apparatus and frames the detentions as an anti-corruption and anti-narcotics cleanup after the indictment of a Trump-aligned figure. Courts and Congress protest the lack of due process, but the executive retains enough police and legislative support to install loyal prosecutors and broaden cooperation with the DEA.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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