Possible scenario
Courts Push Back
27% Chance
The Tribunal Constitucional Plurinacional or lower criminal courts rule that arrests and the DEA handover require judicial review. The government avoids a full reversal but is forced to grant hearings, disclose evidence, and negotiate with parts of Congress.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.