Possible scenario
Contained Proxy Escalation
42% Chance
Iran continues enabling Houthi targeting through intelligence and weapons support, but Tehran and Riyadh avoid direct confrontation. Saudi Arabia focuses on air defense, attribution, and diplomatic pressure rather than immediate retaliation against Iran.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.0%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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