Possible scenario
Brokered De-escalation
20% Chance
China, Oman, or Iraq helps reopen Saudi-Iran security channels to prevent the 2023 normalization from collapsing. Iran denies operational control over Houthi attacks while quietly pressuring the group to pause strikes on Saudi territory.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.0%
- Consumer Services +0.6%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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