Possible scenario
Salazar Primary Fight
18% Chance
Trump's revoked endorsement becomes a formal intraparty fight over immigration messaging in South Florida. The immediate implications are more political than macroeconomic, but a hard-right primary campaign reinforces expectations of strict enforcement if Trump-aligned candidates prevail.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.1%
Tickers
- GEO+0.6%
- CXW+0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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