Possible scenario
GOP Moderation Push
28% Chance
Republicans from immigrant-heavy districts argue that aggressive noncriminal deportations are politically costly ahead of the 2026 midterms. The White House keeps its public stance but allows DHS to soften implementation or emphasize violent-crime prioritization.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- GEO-1.1%
- CXW-1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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