Possible scenario
Hardline Policy Holds
42% Chance
Trump and Tom Homan keep the post-endorsement-revocation message focused on broad deportation authority rather than narrowing ICE priorities. Maria Elvira Salazar remains politically isolated inside the Trump-aligned wing of the GOP, while DHS field offices continue mixed criminal and noncriminal arrests.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
- GEO+2.8%
- CXW+2.4%
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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