Possible scenario
Tit-for-Tat Escalates
30% Chance
The Houthis continue to claim attacks on Saudi oil and aviation targets, while Riyadh responds with expanded airstrikes in Yemen. The market impact remains material but not crisis-like because there is no verified large-scale loss of Saudi crude output.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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