Possible scenario
Claims Prove Contained
40% Chance
Saudi authorities report that most incoming drones and missiles were intercepted, with no confirmed damage to major oil production or airport infrastructure. Gulf equities recover part of the selloff as traders treat the Houthi claims as another episode in the recent pattern of disruptive but contained attacks.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.3%
- Finance +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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