Possible scenario
Damage Is Confirmed
18% Chance
Saudi officials confirm that at least one oil or airport facility suffered physical damage, though the scale remains well below a systemic supply shock. This would push the episode into a material geopolitical escalation for oil, Gulf equities, and regional aviation.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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