Possible scenario
Sideways Valuation Reset
28% Chance
The bull market pauses rather than breaks as high valuations limit upside while earnings prevent a deeper selloff. Investors rotate among sectors, and index-level returns stay muted while companies grow into stretched multiples.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.8%
- Finance +0.4%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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