Possible scenario
Rates Reprice Higher
20% Chance
A less favorable inflation path challenges the idea that the Fed can keep easing while equities remain near records. Higher real yields pressure long-duration stocks and consumer cyclicals, though the outcome is more correction than crisis.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology -1.1%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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