Possible scenario
Soft Landing Extension
42% Chance
The most likely path is that the bull market continues as inflation remains contained, earnings growth broadens beyond megacap technology, and the Fed keeps policy modestly accommodative. Valuations stay elevated, but not extreme enough to force an immediate reversal without a clear macro shock.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Bitcoin Up
Secondary impacts
- Technology +1.1%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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