Possible scenario
Contested Election Fight
10%
−0.4%
Margins in enough legislative districts are close enough to trigger recounts, lawsuits and certification disputes. The most likely version resolves through normal legal channels, but a prolonged fight would draw national attention because Texas control affects redistricting, voting rules and 2028 election administration.
What it moves
- Finance−0.4%
- Energy−0.1%
- Market volatility
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.