Possible scenario
Grid Damage Contained
45% Chance
Russia causes significant damage to substations and thermal generation, but Ukrainian crews and air defenses prevent a nationwide grid failure. Rolling blackouts expand, yet Kyiv, Dnipro, Lviv, and Odesa retain enough power for basic services.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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