Possible scenario
Winter Campaign Intensifies
25% Chance
Moscow follows the October attack with repeated missile and drone waves aimed at exhausting interceptors and repair crews. This scenario raises the risk of a winter electricity crisis and larger Western military-aid response.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -0.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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