Possible scenario
Air Defense Improves
20% Chance
The September Patriot supply deal begins to translate into higher interception rates around key energy nodes. Russia keeps attacking, but the marginal effectiveness of each strike declines.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.4%
- Utilities +0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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