Possible scenario
Full EU Visa Ban
20% Chance
A harder line prevails after continued sabotage allegations and pressure from Poland, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania. The EU adopts a formal bloc-wide ban on new Russian tourist visas, with limited humanitarian and diplomatic exceptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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