Possible scenario
EU Compromise Visa Curbs
40% Chance
The most likely outcome is a negotiated EU position that tightens Russian tourist access without a total Schengen-wide ban. Italy accepts longer screening, biometric checks, and security vetting while preserving limited humanitarian, family, business, and cultural exemptions.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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