Possible scenario
Fragmented EU Enforcement
25% Chance
The EU fails to secure a common position, leaving member states to apply national restrictions. Baltic states and Poland maintain hard entry bans, while Italy, Greece, and Hungary continue narrower processing channels for Russians.
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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