Possible scenario
Pentagon Contract Crackdown
35% Chance
The most likely outcome is a U.S. government response focused on contract compliance rather than an immediate break with SpaceX. The Pentagon has been funding Ukraine Starlink service since 2023, giving it leverage to demand documentation, service-level guarantees and operational safeguards.
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.3%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Tickers
- SPCX-4.1%
- VSAT+1.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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