Possible scenario
Managed Operational Settlement
30% Chance
SpaceX, Ukraine and U.S. officials reach a practical accommodation that preserves Starlink access while clarifying military-use limits. This outcome is plausible because all parties still have incentives to avoid a sudden communications rupture on the battlefield.
Secondary impacts
- Telecommunications +0.5%
- Industrials +0.5%
Tickers
- VSAT+0.7%
- SPCX+0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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