Possible scenario
Battlefield Impact Widens
20% Chance
The Starlink slowdown becomes part of a broader military problem for Ukraine if drone-defense gaps persist. This would increase political urgency in Washington and Europe, but the immediate market effect would still be concentrated in defense and satellite communications rather than the whole economy.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.7%
- Technology -0.2%
- Telecommunications +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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