Possible scenario
Ban Runs Longer
40% Chance
Moscow is most likely to keep export restrictions in place beyond Oct. 31 because Ukrainian strikes, maintenance bottlenecks, and domestic fuel shortages are not quickly reversible. Global diesel cracks stay elevated, with Europe, Turkey, Brazil, and parts of Africa competing for replacement barrels from the US Gulf Coast, India, and the Middle East.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals -0.3%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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