Possible scenario
Partial Easing
25% Chance
Russia could relax the ban if refinery runs recover enough and domestic shortages ease after the autumn agricultural demand peak. A quota-based reopening would pressure diesel cracks and reduce near-term inflation concern, though flows would remain below pre-strike levels.
Initial impacts
- Oil prices Down
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Industrials +0.6%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.