Earnings Split AI

20%its chance, of the story’s futures

+0.2%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The market stops treating AI as one trade and starts separating companies with durable earnings from those with unproven AI monetization. This creates a choppy tape where large cloud platforms can recover while Intel and Reddit remain vulnerable.

What it moves

Business Services+0.3%
Industrials−0.3%
Market volatility▼ down
Riskier companies' borrowing costs▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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