Possible scenario
Houthi Retaliation Escalates
30% Chance
The Houthis respond to the Saudi air campaign with new drone and missile launches against Saudi territory. Given the recent strikes on Riyadh airport and Aramco Yanbu, retaliation against energy or aviation targets is a realistic near-term risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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