Possible scenario
Diplomatic Containment
15% Chance
Oman, the UN envoy, and regional intermediaries push both sides back toward the stalled cease-fire track. Riyadh may accept de-escalation if the Houthis suspend attacks on airports and Aramco facilities.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.8%
- Consumer Services +0.5%
- Industrials -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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