Possible scenario
Contained Air Campaign
45% Chance
Saudi Arabia continues limited strikes around Sanaa while avoiding a broader ground campaign or direct attacks on civilian infrastructure. This is the most likely path because Riyadh has incentives to punish Houthi missile launches without fully abandoning the 2023 de-escalation framework.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- BA+0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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