Democratic House Base

45%its chance, of the story’s futures

−0.5%on the S&P 500, if it happens

The most likely path is that Sabato’s move above 218 reflects the new consensus: Democrats are favored to retake the House, but by a modest margin. The generic-ballot lead, toss-up district polling, GOP retirements, and blocked Republican maps all point in the same direction.

What it moves

Healthcare−0.7%
Finance−0.6%
Market volatility▲ up
10-year Treasury yield▼ down

Sectors in percent; other series by direction only.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.

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