Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation
20% Chance
Russia could respond through missile strikes on Ukrainian communications infrastructure, cyber operations against Ukrainian networks, or limited cyber probing of European targets. This is a lower-probability but higher-impact branch because it creates some risk of spillover beyond Russia and Ukraine.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.2%
- Industrials -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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