Possible scenario
October Gulf Hurricane
18% Chance
Despite the quiet peak season, a short window of lower wind shear allows a late Caribbean or Gulf system to intensify. This would reverse part of the market relief from the no-hurricane record, especially for energy infrastructure, property insurers, and coastal utilities.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Utilities -1.3%
- Finance -0.9%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Non-Energy Materials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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