Possible scenario
Rapid Compliance Cure
45% Chance
The most likely outcome is that the Trump administration characterizes the two ads as a technical or scheduling failure rather than intentional defiance. DHS, Customs and Border Protection, or DOJ files a sworn notice of compliance and the court accepts that the campaign has ended.
Portfolio impact
S&P 5000.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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