Possible scenario
Court Enforcement Escalates
25% Chance
If the court views the two post-deadline ads as a violation of its order, it could move quickly to enforce compliance. The dispute remains narrow, but a contempt track would raise legal pressure on DHS, CBP, and DOJ officials.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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