Possible scenario
Paxton Survives Leak
35% Chance
Ken Paxton retains enough support among Texas Republican primary voters to survive the leaked audio. He reframes the comments as support for long-term solvency changes rather than immediate benefit cuts, while conservative media attention shifts to other issues.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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