Possible scenario
GOP Distances Itself
20% Chance
National Republicans move quickly to prevent the tape from reviving Democratic attacks over Social Security. Donald Trump, the NRSC, and Senate GOP leaders emphasize that benefit cuts are not part of the 2026 Republican platform.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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