Possible scenario
Cornyn Gains Ground
30% Chance
The leak materially hurts Paxton with older GOP voters, a critical bloc in a low-turnout runoff. Cornyn and outside Republican groups portray Paxton as a liability who would endanger both the Senate seat and Donald Trump's no-cuts pledge.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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