Possible scenario
Talks Collapse
20% Chance
Putin concludes that Ukraine and the United States are asking too much on occupied territory, sanctions sequencing, and Western security guarantees. A breakdown would quickly refocus markets on winter energy risks, sanctions enforcement, and renewed Western arms flows.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.5%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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