Possible scenario
Diplomacy Stalls Quietly
30% Chance
The envoys leave talks with Putin without a breakthrough, but neither Washington nor Moscow declares the process dead. This is a common outcome for Ukraine negotiations because both sides have incentives to keep channels open while preserving military leverage.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials -0.2%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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