Possible scenario
Ceasefire Framework Advances
35% Chance
Trump envoys use the Oslo understandings with Volodymyr Zelenskyy to secure Vladimir Putin's agreement to a structured ceasefire process. The most likely progress is limited and phased, beginning with energy infrastructure and prisoner exchanges rather than a final territorial settlement.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.9%
- Industrials +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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