Possible scenario
Violent Capital Clashes
20% Chance
Large PTI convoys break through some roadblocks and confront police or Rangers near Islamabad and Rawalpindi. Casualties, mass arrests, and renewed internet restrictions increase domestic political risk and create a modest global risk-off reaction given Pakistan's IMF dependence and nuclear-armed status.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.4%
- Telecommunications -0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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