Possible scenario
Negotiated De-Escalation
25% Chance
Senior PTI figures, the federal government, and intermediaries from the security establishment reach a limited tactical compromise before or shortly after Oct. 4. The deal does not resolve Imran Khan's imprisonment, but it reduces near-term street risk and allows authorities to reopen Islamabad.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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