March Contained by Lockdown

The federal government and Islamabad police keep major routes blocked through Oct. 4, limiting Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf's ability to bring large crowds into the capital. This is the most likely path because authorities have already escalated detentions and are spending heavily on barriers, containers, and security deployments.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.