Possible scenario
US Taiwan Pushback
20% Chance
The United States, Taiwan, and like-minded partners respond by increasing diplomatic and development support to Paraguay and Belize. The goal is to prevent a domino effect among Taiwan's remaining allies and show that Chinese sanctions carry political costs.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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