Possible scenario
Symbolic Pressure Holds
40% Chance
China keeps the sanctions narrowly targeted at officials and uses them mainly as a warning to Taiwan's remaining diplomatic partners. Paraguay under President Santiago Peña and Belize under Prime Minister John Briceño continue recognizing Taipei, judging that domestic politics and Taiwan aid outweigh near-term Chinese pressure.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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