Possible scenario
Recognition Campaign Expands
25% Chance
Beijing treats the Paraguay and Belize sanctions as the opening step in a broader campaign against Taiwan's remaining diplomatic partners. China increases bilateral offers, political contacts, and punitive measures aimed at Latin American, Caribbean, and Pacific governments that still recognize Taipei.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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